QUID · ARIZONA GOVERNOR · OCT 2 - OCT 8, 2026
Seven days of conversation about Katie Hobbs and Andy Biggs, split between posts that can be placed in Arizona and posts from the rest of the country. Both run negative everywhere, and the week is organised around a debate only one of them attended.
Published polling, shown to set context. A poll asks a sample of voters which candidate they intend to support. Everything else on this page measures something different: the balance of positive and negative labeled posts about each candidate in the captured conversation. A candidate can lead the vote and still take the worse of the argument online, and where the two diverge this page explains the conversation, not the electorate.
Hobbs leads the polling average by about 8 points while taking much the worse of the conversation, 41 points behind Biggs in Arizona. The comparison is weaker here than anywhere else on this page: Arizona's most recent public poll was fielded on August 25, six weeks before this window, so the two measures do not cover the same days.
Net sentiment runs on the left axis from −100 to +100. Gold bars carry total daily volume for both candidates combined; hover any bar for the narratives driving that day. Biggs climbs through the weekend and collapses on Wednesday, the night he debated an empty podium. Hobbs is negative every day of the week.
Posts whose geography resolves to Arizona. The labeled share here is the highest in this series, so these meters rest on firmer ground than most.
Arizona
1,831 unique authors · 217 original posts
(6% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 1,693 labeled posts, 48.6% of this slice;
stored sample behind the labels 172 documents.
His strongest Arizona material is about his opponent not being there. A televised debate went ahead with one candidate, and he spent the week naming the absence.
It’s a disgrace that Katie Hobbs and John Giles have refused to debate. They have no plan and no vision.
@VitoBagofDonutsOct 6Source
Fantastic answer from Andy Biggs on school choice and ESAs. Katie Hobbs wants to destroy school choice.
@redazgirlOct 7Source
The case he makes in Arizona is a numbered list: a state ranking, a count of vetoed tax cuts, and a school-choice fight. It is the most itemized argument on this page.
The Hobbs Record: 45th in affordability, vetoing tax cuts 3 times.
@RichRobackOct 6Source
Last night, I made the case directly to Arizonans that we deserve better than Katie Hobbs. Sine Kerr and I have a plan to make our state more affordable.
Andy BiggsOct 7Source
Arizona’s case against him is a congressional voting record, and the specific votes raised are old ones that opponents reproduce rather than characterize.
If you want to pretend that Andy Biggs didn’t vote against a spousal rape law, I won’t let you. Biggs was one of only 3 nos.
@denkayemOct 7Source
The Republican nominee for governor, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, is blaming Gov. Katie Hobbs for longstanding state trooper funding issues that date back years.
ABC15 ArizonaOct 2Source
Arizona
3,453 unique authors · 329 original posts
(4% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 2,884 labeled posts, 36.6% of this slice;
stored sample behind the labels 292 documents.
Her in-state negative cell outnumbers her positive one five to one, and the single largest reason is a debate she declined. Her opponent made the absence the message and Arizona carried it.
Tonight, voters will get to hear my plan and vision for Arizona on the debate stage. They won’t hear from Katie Hobbs because she has no plan. She’s a coward and a failed governor.
@AzzCrownOct 6Source
Drive your work? Arizonans just want you to drive away from our state. The Hobbs Record: 45th in affordability.
@RichRobackOct 6Source
What positive Arizona coverage she gets is the job rather than the campaign: a trade office opening, a get-out-the-vote rally with the attorney general. Local television reports it without adjectives.
Gov. Katie Hobbs joined Taiwanese leaders at the opening of an economic and cultural office to aid Taiwanese businesses and citizens in the region.
ABC15 ArizonaOct 6Source
Attorney General Kris Mayes and Gov. Katie Hobbs motivated union members before a get-out-the-vote effort one month before Election Day.
ABC15 ArizonaOct 4Source
The policy attacks on her in Arizona are specific and administrative: education savings accounts, three vetoed tax cuts, and a shortfall in state trooper funding she says predates her.
Katie Hobbs wants to destroy school choice. Andy Biggs will get resources to those who need them.
@redazgirlOct 7Source
The Republican nominee for governor is blaming Gov. Katie Hobbs for longstanding state trooper funding issues that date back years.
ABC15 ArizonaOct 2Source
The same week reads differently depending on where you stand. Net sentiment is plotted from Arizona on the left to the rest of the country on the right; the solid line counts every post naming a candidate, the dashed line counts only posts that name that candidate and not the other.
All posts naming the candidate Posts naming that candidate only
Biggs reads within a point of the same at home and nationally, the flattest profile in this series. The single-subject test lifts both figures by 11 points, which says the shared posts are dragging him down rather than propping him up.
Hobbs reads about six points worse at home than nationally, and the single-subject test makes both much worse: -90.7 in Arizona on posts that name her alone. Almost nothing in this corpus argues for her except her own account.
Geography, not party. Both columns cover the same week and the same two candidates; what separates them is which arguments actually travel.
Arizona argues about administration: education savings accounts, three vetoed tax cuts, and who is responsible for a funding gap that predates the governor.
Katie Hobbs wants to destroy school choice. Andy Biggs will get resources to those who need them.
@redazgirlOct 7Source
The Hobbs Record: 45th in affordability, vetoing tax cuts 3 times.
@RichRobackOct 6Source
The Republican nominee for governor is blaming Gov. Katie Hobbs for longstanding state trooper funding issues that date back years.
ABC15 ArizonaOct 2Source
Gov. Katie Hobbs joined Taiwanese leaders at the opening of an economic and cultural office.
ABC15 ArizonaOct 6Source
The country argues with the absence and the internals. Both travel without any Arizona knowledge attached.
They won’t hear from Katie Hobbs because she has no plan. She’s a coward and a failed governor.
Andy BiggsOct 6Source
An internal poll shared in a political post claims Andy Biggs holds a narrow 4-point lead over Katie Hobbs.
Did You Know WorldOct 8Source
GOP Arizona gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs slams incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs for vetoing common-sense legislation.
Fox News VideoOct 5Source
If you want to pretend that Andy Biggs didn’t vote against a spousal rape law, I won’t let you.
@denkayemOct 7Source
Posts placed elsewhere in the United States. The national conversation is roughly four times the Arizona one and reads almost identically, which is unusual.
Rest of United States
6,259 unique authors · 580 original posts
(5% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 4,369 labeled posts, 40.4% of this slice;
stored sample behind the labels 560 documents.
Nationally the absence is the story too, and his own page is the main distributor of it. His account produces more of his national volume than any news outlet does.
Tonight, voters will get to hear my plan and vision for Arizona on the debate stage. They won’t hear from Katie Hobbs because she has no plan.
Andy BiggsOct 6Source
GOP Arizona gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs slams incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs for vetoing common-sense legislation.
Fox News VideoOct 5Source
Internal polling claiming he is within reach circulates widely without a public pollster attached, which is worth saying plainly: these are campaign numbers, not surveys.
New Hobbs internal has sent the Dems in Arizona into full panic. Biggs is well within the margin of error.
@DburdMichelleOct 8Source
An internal poll shared in a political post claims Andy Biggs holds a narrow 4-point lead over Katie Hobbs.
Did You Know WorldOct 8Source
He spent the week answering advertising rather than setting an agenda, which is itself the shape of his national cell: reactive, and mostly his own voice.
Katie Hobbs is spending millions of dollars to lie about me because she has nothing to offer Arizonans. No plan, no vision. Nothing.
Andy BiggsOct 5Source
Actually, Biggs is behind in literally all polls. Independents will be voting for Hobbs.
Facebook commenterOct 4Source
Rest of United States
16,546 unique authors · 965 original posts
(3% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 11,497 labeled posts, 37.0% of this slice;
stored sample behind the labels 1,415 documents.
Her national cell is the largest on this page and most of it is her opponent’s own account. The language is about character and attendance rather than policy.
They won’t hear from Katie Hobbs because she has no plan. She’s a coward and a failed governor.
Andy BiggsOct 6Source
Katie Hobbs is spending millions of dollars to lie about me because she has nothing to offer Arizonans.
Andy BiggsOct 5Source
Her own national message is biographical, and it is the clearest thing she published all week: a career before politics, set against career politicians.
As a social worker, I saw firsthand how self-interested career politicians like Andy Biggs were failing to address the challenges Arizona families faced.
Katie HobbsOct 6Source
Actually, Biggs is behind in literally all polls. Independents will be voting for Hobbs.
Facebook commenterOct 4Source
National conservative outlets cover her veto record rather than her agenda, which is how a governing act becomes a campaign liability outside the state it applies to.
GOP Arizona gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs slams incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs for vetoing common-sense legislation.
Fox News VideoOct 5Source
It was great to be with my friends Andy Biggs and Sine Kerr. It’s time to turn out the vote for these two and change the leadership.
Debbie LeskoOct 6Source
This page is the product of two different kinds of work. One half is data that no public API makes available; the other half is judgment about what the data does and does not support.
None of the following could be assembled from public endpoints inside a week.
The data does not interpret itself, and it arrives with traps in it.
Neither half can establish cause. This page measures what was said, how much of it there was, and who said it. It is not a poll, it does not model turnout, and it does not predict the November result.
primary: sentiment targeting, so the sentiment is scored
toward that named figure rather than toward the post as a whole.