Tax season isn’t just about filing forms—it’s a financial turning point. For millions of Americans, tax refunds represent an opportunity to save, splurge, or make long-postponed purchases. Brands that know where refund dollars are headed can tailor their offers, campaigns, and product strategies to meet consumers at the moment of intent.
Using Quid’s real-time data analytics, we help businesses uncover insights into real consumer conversations about refunds, category demand spikes, and financial behavior patterns that emerge during refund season. Here’s how brands can tap into these insights to build timely campaigns, target high-intent segments, and maximize their ROI during one of the most financially active periods of the year!
Tax refund season generates a spike in online chatter, especially around discretionary spending. According to a recent National Retail Federation (NRF) analysis, nearly 54% of consumers expect a refund in 2025. While many plan to use it to pay down debt, supplement savings, or for everyday expenses, a full 43% plan to splurge on non-essentials, including travel, electronics, and entertainment.
This behavioral split presents a nuanced opportunity: while some consumers focus on essentials, others are ready to indulge—especially when the purchase feels ‘earned.’ In this landscape, framing is everything. Understanding how people talk about refunds allows brands to position themselves in a way that resonates with each mindset.
Our timeline of social media mentions of tax refund season shows a consistent interest in “maximizing tax deductions and refunds” and a growing worry about “navigating tax scams and fraud.”
Tax refund conversation Jan-March 2025
Our AI capabilities quickly surface other relevant insight for brands, including:
As of March 14, 2025, the IRS has issued over $162.9 billion in tax refunds, with the average refund at $3,271—a 5.2% increase from the previous year. This surge in disposable income during March and April often correlates with higher consumer spend across both essential and discretionary categories.
This surge is not just macroeconomic noise—it’s a real-time injection into consumer wallets. For brands, this translates into a narrow but impactful window of intent-driven spending. And although people are cautious, the positive sentiment toward tax season refunds is still outweighing the negative:
Positive vs negative sentiment shared online about “tax season” Jan-March 2025
This net positivity suggests consumers are approaching refund season with optimism—but a measured kind. They’re open to spending, but they’re seeking value.
This signals a population seeking value for their refund dollars and possibly less likely to splurge on unnecessary things. The trick is positioning your products and services as necessary, which they certainly are to your target audience. This calls for exploring demand spikes and product purchase behaviors.
Tax refund season always brings measurable shifts in consumer spending patterns. According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers spent $331.6 billion online from January to April 2024, marking a 7% year-over-year increase. Grocery spending saw the highest growth rate at 15.7%, as consumers increasingly prioritized value during uncertain economic conditions.
These shifts aren’t one-size-fits-all—they vary by category. The spike in grocery spending points to a focus on practical, everyday needs, especially as prices rise. Meanwhile, categories like electronics and home goods continue to attract more intentional buyers when positioned as 'justified splurges,' reflecting a mindset of reward-driven spending during refund season.
Tax refund season also highlights evolving consumer financial priorities. In 2024, a Bankrate survey indicated that 28% of Americans expecting a tax refund planned to allocate most or all of it to savings, while 19% intended to use it for debt repayment. This marked a shift from the previous year, when 28% prioritized debt repayment over savings (26%). Notably, the 2024 survey recorded the lowest preference for debt payoff in a decade.
Additionally, online communities have seen increased discussions around maximizing savings through strategies like "deal stacking." For instance, users on Reddit's r/Frugal share and discuss various techniques to combine discounts, reflecting a growing interest in stretching financial resources during refund season. Others, on Bluesky, talk about using refunds to power long-term investments, like purchasing property:
Refund-related conversations show a clear divide—not just between saving and spending, but also between immediate needs and long-term financial goals. Brands that align with either mindset—or thoughtfully span both—can craft messaging that resonates more deeply with their audience.
When isolating positive and neutral “tax refund” conversations happening online, we see they’re also interested in distinct purchase categories, like travel, beauty, fashion, shopping, health and fitness, and more:
Top interests of tax season conversation participants (Jan-March 2025)
The next step is to know who these conversation drivers are and if this audience is actually ready to buy.
Surfacing early demand signals in consumer conversations and understanding transactional intent are key to timing promotions and personalizing offers. Brands that align campaigns with these real-time behaviors can capture consumer spending at its peak.
For example, we can investigate the consumer decision journey to get an overarching sense of where they are in the decision-making process regarding their refunds. We would be able to refine this further and capture actionable intel about specific brands:
(Jan-March 2025)
As we can see above, many consumers are currently in the consideration phase, and they’re moving fairly rapidly from the evaluation phase to “purchase intent” and then finally to “purchase”. This is determined by analyzing the post content and isolating for key phrases that indicate where they are in the purchasing funnel.
The purchases, predictably, range from paying bills to splurging on new electronics:
These signals aren’t passive—they’re invitations. Consumers are telling us, in real-time, what they want, how soon they want it, and how they plan to justify it. That’s the kind of intel that drives smart timing, creative strategy, and audience alignment.
So, who’s driving the conversation? Older women are disproportionately represented in refund-related discussions—a detail that opens the door to deeper exploration. Are younger consumers, particularly those under 35, saving more of their refunds? Or are they simply less vocal about how they use them?
Understanding who’s talking, and why—and who’s quiet, and why—can guide everything from media mix to message tone to what products to stock. It tells you who’s engaged, who’s skeptical, and who might need a different kind of nudge.
Brands can speak to consumer interests by emphasizing value, acknowledging financial realities, and offering compelling reasons to buy. They can show up in the right channels—whether that's a subreddit or Bluesky—delivering timely, relevant messaging that meets consumers in the consideration phase and stays with them through to purchase.
Quid connects the dots between behavior, belief, and buying intent—giving you the insights needed to move with precision. Ready to meet your audience where they are—this tax season and beyond? Let’s talk.