QUID · ALASKA U.S. SENATE · OCT 5 - OCT 11, 2026
Alaska is the one race on this site where a figure had to be withheld. Mary Peltola's in-state slice produced a single stored document and no labeled positive post at all, so there is no honest number to publish for her at home. What the week does show is a sitting senator importing national help, and a state unusually busy with two men named Dan Sullivan.
Published polling, shown to set context. A poll asks a sample of voters which candidate they intend to support. Everything else on this page measures something different: the balance of positive and negative labeled posts about each candidate in the captured conversation. A candidate can lead the vote and still take the worse of the argument online, and where the two diverge this page explains the conversation, not the electorate.
No comparison can be drawn here. Peltola's in-state sentiment figure is withheld because that slice produced one stored document, and the polling leads her by 3.5 points on a two-poll average. The most recent poll was fielded on October 3, two days before this measurement window opened, so the two readings do not cover the same days either.
Net sentiment runs on the left axis from −100 to +100. Gold bars carry total daily volume for both candidates combined; hover any bar for the narratives driving that day. Peltola's line swings hardest, from -61.8 on Saturday to +40.1 on Thursday. Alaska's daily figures rest on very few labeled posts, so treat the shape as indicative rather than measured.
Both figures cover posts that resolve to Alaska. Peltola's is withheld and the reason is set out beside it. Sullivan's rests on 19 stored documents, which clears the floor but is thin.
Alaska
403 unique authors · 30 original posts
(3% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 190 labeled posts, 21.3% of this slice; stored sample behind the labels 19 documents.
The sharpest in-state criticism of Sullivan this week was about who he brought with him. The state Democratic party framed the vice president's Fairbanks rally as an incumbent calling for outside help rather than running on his record.
Alaska leaders call out desperate Dan Sullivan for calling up his Lower 48 fellow Ohioan JD Vance in the final days before Alaskans vote him out.
@TheAlaskaDemsOct 6Source
A second in-state line argues he serves corporate interests over Alaskans on permitting and fisheries. It is the most distinctly Alaskan argument on this page and appears in none of the national material.
Dan is owned by the same for-profit corporations that extort, obstruct and delay permits for Alaska resource development.
@DanHaskins25151Oct 6Source
Late in the week a watchdog group made a referral over alleged election law violations in the Senate race. It circulated among his own supporters as much as his opponents, which is why it sits in this slice.
Independent watchdog makes DOJ referral over alleged election law violations in the Alaska Senate race.
@pepesgrandmaOct 8Source
Alaska
Every labeled post in this slice fell on one side: 0 positive and 10 negative. A split like that forces net sentiment to exactly -100 no matter how little sits behind it, so the figure would describe the arithmetic rather than the week. No positive post was labeled at all. Behind those labels sit 1 stored document.
What is still solid for this slice: 800 posts from 377 unique authors, and the daily volume on the chart below. Volume does not depend on the sentiment labels, so only the sentiment figure is withheld.
377 unique authors · 10 original posts
(1% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment labels covered 10 posts, 1.2% of this slice, on a stored sample of 1 documents.
Peltola's Alaska slice carried 800 posts this week and one stored document, with no labeled positive post at all. The single retrieved item is a four-word dismissal. That is not a sample from which a sentiment figure can be published, and the panel above says so in place of a number.
You are worse! No vote for you!
@polartreasuresOct 5Source
Volume is unaffected by the labeling problem, and the in-state conversation about Peltola was real. It centred on fuel and heating costs in rural communities and on whether her campaign was pressing hard enough on veterans.
Peltola highlighted the extreme cost of fuel and heating in rural Alaska, where some communities face the highest prices in the country.
The Alaska CurrentOct 7Source
The same week reads differently depending on where you stand. Net sentiment is plotted from Alaska on the left to the rest of the country on the right; the solid line counts every post naming a candidate, the dashed line counts only posts that name that candidate and not the other.
All posts naming the candidate Posts naming that candidate only
Sullivan reads 49.4 points better in Alaska than nationally, the widest home-state advantage on this site. The single-subject test cuts it to 17.0, which is a large enough change to treat the headline gap with caution: much of it comes from posts that name both candidates.
Mary Peltola is missing a publishable figure on at least one side, so the distance between the two cannot be stated. The panel above gives the reason.
Geography, not party. Both columns cover the same week and the same two candidates; what separates them is which arguments actually travel.
In-state posts are about presence and loyalty: a vice-presidential rally, a presidential one, permitting and fisheries, and a second candidate with the same name as the incumbent. Very little of it is about Washington.
National posts place Alaska in a count. The race appears in polling snapshots and in coverage of a president touring states where his party is under pressure, with Peltola's lead reported and doubted in the same breath.
The same two candidates over the same seven days, measured across every state except Alaska, where both bases are far larger and both figures are sound.
Rest of United States
9,491 unique authors · 2,241 original posts
(13% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 3,251 labeled posts, 19.6% of this slice; stored sample behind the labels 898 documents.
Nationally Sullivan is covered as an incumbent in difficulty. The president's planned Wasilla rally was reported as another stop on a tour of red states where Republicans are under pressure.
Trump to continue red-state tour with Alaska rally for struggling Republican Dan Sullivan.
The National News DeskOct 9Source
Much of the national conversation about Alaska this week was not about this seat at all. A three-way Republican split in the governor's race drew presidential criticism, and Sullivan appears inside that coverage.
Trump blasted Alaska Republicans for splitting the governor's race three ways against one Democrat, handing Democrats an opening.
@GuntherEaglemanOct 9Source
His positive national material is polling aggregation. Compilations of key Senate races during the week placed Republicans ahead in six of them, and Alaska appears in those lists.
Republicans lead six key Senate races in a new polling snapshot as the battle for control of Congress tightens.
Your NewsOct 10Source
Rest of United States
8,566 unique authors · 1,861 original posts
(13% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 1,636 labeled posts, 11.0% of this slice; stored sample behind the labels 483 documents.
Nationally Peltola is covered as narrowly ahead in a race nobody will call. Her national figure of -22.5 sits oddly against that coverage, and the gap between the two is the clearest thing this page can show about her.
With less than a month until Alaska's Senate election, Democrat Mary Peltola leads in recent polling, but the race is a cliffhanger.
NewsmaxOct 11Source
The affirmative national case made for her is economic and specific to Alaska: lowering costs and protecting fisheries, set against her opponent's industry backing. It travels better outside the state than inside it.
Peltola is fighting to lower costs, fix the rigged system and protect Alaska fisheries.
Freedom Writers CollaborativeOct 7Source
Late in the week a story about her treatment of campaign aides began circulating nationally. Alaskan posts were notably sceptical of it, and it is the largest single contributor to her negative national figure.
James Carville offers frank advice to aides who complained about Mary Peltola's allegedly abusive behavior: go do something else with your life.
WonderwallOct 11Source
This page is the product of two different kinds of work. One half is data that no public API makes available; the other half is judgment about what the data does and does not support.
None of the following could be assembled from public endpoints inside a week.
The data does not interpret itself, and it arrives with traps in it.
Neither half can establish cause. This page measures what was said, how much of it there was, and who said it. It is not a poll, it does not model turnout, and it does not predict the November result.
primary: sentiment targeting, so the sentiment is scored toward that named figure rather
than toward the post as a whole. Every figure on this page reads that same definition.