QUID · NEW HAMPSHIRE U.S. SENATE · OCT 5 - OCT 11, 2026
US ELECTIONS2026 NEW HAMPSHIRE
Neither candidate wins New Hampshire's conversation. Both read negative at home and both read negative nationally, which no other race measured this way manages. The week that produced it belonged to one story, and it was about John Sununu's name appearing in a set of released emails.
TOTAL VOLUMEPosts, articles and comments across all geographies. Only 16% of the U.S. portion is original writing; the rest is reposts and replies.
-19.4
SUNUNU, NATIONALNet sentiment outside New Hampshire. -15.4 on posts naming them alone.
-17.4
PAPPAS, NATIONALNet sentiment outside New Hampshire. -3.6 on posts naming them alone.
3K
BIGGEST DAYTuesday carried the largest volume of the week on the first circulation of the Epstein emails story, alongside reporting on why Sununu chose to run again.
What The Polls Say
Published polling, shown to set context. A poll asks a sample of voters which candidate they intend to support. Everything else on this page measures something different: the balance of positive and negative labeled posts about each candidate in the captured conversation. A candidate can lead the vote and still take the worse of the argument online, and where the two diverge this page explains the conversation, not the electorate.
Trafalgar Group · field date Sep 27, 2026 · 1,082 LV · margin of error 2.9 points
The two measures point opposite ways, though neither is emphatic. Sununu takes the better of the New Hampshire conversation at -45.5 against -50.0, which is a contest between two negative figures, while Pappas leads the five-poll average by 5.4 points. Both in-state sentiment figures here rest on about a dozen stored documents, so the conversation side of this comparison is the weakest on the site.
The Week In One Line
Net sentiment runs on the left axis from −100 to +100. Gold bars carry total daily
volume for both candidates combined; hover any bar for the narratives driving that day. Sununu's line swings further than any other on this site, from +56.0 on Monday to -80.7 on Wednesday and -77.8 on Sunday. Daily figures on a race this small move on very few labeled posts.
Sununu net sentimentPappas net sentimentTotal posts, articles and comments
Inside New Hampshire
Both figures cover posts that resolve to New Hampshire. This is the smallest race on the site and the in-state figures rest on 11 and 12 stored documents, barely above the floor for publishing a number at all. Read them as a direction, not a measurement.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Sununu
New Hampshire
330posts
30 positive
80 negative
Hover a segment
189 unique authors · 30 original posts
(9% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 110 labeled posts, 33.3% of this slice; stored sample behind the labels 11 documents.
Top 3 narratives driving sentiment
1
A Name In The Emails
NEGATIVE DRIVER
The week in New Hampshire was dominated by Sununu's appearance in released Epstein correspondence. The state Democratic party published a photograph placing him at a Doha event the emails reference, against a clip of him denying he had been there.
John Sununu photographed in Doha, Qatar at an event Jeffrey Epstein referenced in the email where he wrote john sununu, has good stories. Right: Sununu falsely denying he has ever been to Doha.
The second in-state thread is unusual: posts that dismiss both men in the same breath. It is part of why no candidate on this page finishes positive, and it comes from people who expect to vote anyway.
Sununu is probably pouring in his own money too, but Pappas is a weak candidate as well.
What positive material exists for Sununu in state is not about him. It is circulation of a poll showing his opponent's lead narrowing, shared with commentary attacking Pappas rather than praising Sununu.
A new Rasmussen poll shows Democrat Chris Pappas leading Republican John Sununu 49 to 44 in the New Hampshire Senate race.
260 unique authors · 40 original posts
(8% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 120 labeled posts, 22.6% of this slice; stored sample behind the labels 12 documents.
Top 3 narratives driving sentiment
1
The Constituent Complaint
NEGATIVE DRIVER
The most repeated in-state charge against Pappas is about access rather than ideology: a Manchester wastewater project and a constituent saying he would not meet about it. It is small, local and specific, which is why it carries.
Manchester is getting crushed by a $400M wastewater project mandated by the federal government and Pappas still refuses to meet with me.
A second line argues that Pappas would import the tax structure of the state next door. In New Hampshire, where having neither an income nor a sales tax is a point of identity, it is a potent frame.
New Hampshire has no income tax and no sales tax on purpose. Massachusetts has both and still can't house people or keep kids in school.
Pappas's positive in-state material is almost entirely his own posting about local visits. On a base this small, one candidate's own feed is enough to shape the positive side of a figure.
New Hampshire's nurses keep us safe and healthy. I met with Concord Hospital Laconia and Franklin nurses organizing for better conditions.
The same week reads differently depending on where you stand. Net sentiment is plotted
from New Hampshire on the left to the rest of the country on the right; the solid line counts every post
naming a candidate, the dashed line counts only posts that name that candidate and not the other.
All posts naming the candidate
Posts naming that candidate only
-26.0John SununuNew Hampshire minus national · +15.4 on single-subject posts
Sununu reads 26 points worse in New Hampshire than nationally, but the single-subject figures reverse the sign entirely, from -26.0 to +15.4. The two tests disagree about direction, so the honest reading is that this page cannot say whether his home state is harder on him than the country is. The base is too small to settle it.
-32.6Chris PappasNew Hampshire minus national · -29.7 on single-subject posts
Pappas reads 32.6 points worse at home than nationally and the single-subject test keeps the sign, at -29.7. That agreement makes his the more trustworthy of the two readings here, though it still rests on 12 stored documents in state.
What each audience actually argues about
Geography, not party. Both columns cover the same week and the same two candidates; what separates them is which arguments actually travel.
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire Argues About Character And Taxes
In-state posts are local and personal: a photograph and a denial, a wastewater project and a meeting that did not happen, and the state's long-standing argument about becoming Massachusetts. Policy appears mostly as a warning.
Doha, and a denialThe single largest driver of the week in state.
A $400M wastewater projectAnd a constituent saying he would not meet.
No income tax, on purposeThe frame that makes a tax attack land here.
REST OF THE U.S.
The Country Argues About The Ratings
National posts are about where the seat sits on a forecast. Race ratings moved during the week and both candidates appear inside that coverage, with the advertising itself getting more scrutiny than either man's record.
Three races movedToward Democrats, in the week's forecast revision.
Ads fact-checkedNew Hampshire named alongside Iowa and North Carolina.
$120 to fill a truckFuel costs, tied to foreign policy, aimed at Sununu.
Both columns spent the week on something other than New Hampshire. In state the subject was a set of emails; nationally it was a forecast. Very little of either conversation was about what either candidate would do with the seat.
The Rest Of The Country
The same two candidates over the same seven days, measured across every state except New Hampshire, where the base is far larger.
NATIONAL
Sununu
Rest of United States
4,761posts
779 positive
1,155 negative
Hover a segment
3,040 unique authors · 664 original posts
(14% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 1,934 labeled posts, 40.6% of this slice; stored sample behind the labels 366 documents.
Top 3 narratives driving sentiment
1
Trailing In The National Count
NEGATIVE DRIVER
Outside New Hampshire, Sununu appears mainly in race ratings. The week's forecast movement went against Republicans generally, and he is listed among the seats making that true rather than discussed on his record.
The Cook Political Report moved three Senate races toward Democrats, raising Democrats' projected gains.
The sharpest national attack ties him to energy prices through foreign policy. New Hampshire heats with oil more than most states, which gives the argument a local hook even when it travels nationally.
It's $120 to fill up my truck. It's this war in Iran that Trump got us in. John Sununu? He cheered Trump on.
2,487 unique authors · 813 original posts
(19% of volume; the rest are reposts and replies).
Sentiment from 833 labeled posts, 19.7% of this slice; stored sample behind the labels 233 documents.
Top 3 narratives driving sentiment
1
Advertising Under Inspection
NEGATIVE DRIVER
Nationally Pappas appears most often inside coverage of the advertising itself. New Hampshire was one of three Senate races whose ads were fact-checked during the week, which puts the claims rather than the candidate in the frame.
With less than a month to go, both parties have blanketed the airwaves with campaign ads in Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The direct national criticism of Pappas is about cost of living and his record in Congress. It is brief, repetitive and comes from accounts with no New Hampshire connection.
Not one tweet in four years while prices skyrocketed 23 percent.
The remaining national material is ratings coverage. New Hampshire moved up the list of races to watch during the week, which produced mentions of Pappas without much description of him.
Four weeks out from the election, all eyes are on an October surprise in the Fox News Power Rankings.
This page is the product of two different kinds of work. One half is data that no public API makes available; the other half is judgment about what the data does and does not support.
What Quid made possible
None of the following could be assembled from public endpoints inside a week.
11K posts split by geographyThe smallest corpus on this site, separated into a New Hampshire half and a national half.
Sentiment aimed at the personEach candidate is defined once, centrally, with primary-term targeting, which here also has to separate one Sununu from another in the same family.
Day buckets deep enough to readEvery one of the seven days carries its own retrieved posts, including the 663-post Friday.
622 stored documents behind the labelsThin in state, sound nationally, and reported separately rather than averaged together.
What Claude was responsible for
The data does not interpret itself, and it arrives with traps in it.
Publishing a number and undermining itThe in-state figures clear the floor by one and two documents. They are published with that said plainly rather than withheld or presented flat.
Reporting a test that contradicts itselfSununu's gap changes sign under the single-subject re-run. The page says the direction is unresolved instead of picking the flattering half.
Refusing to read a 70-point day as a swingSunday rests on a few hundred posts. The chart hint says so.
Checking the poll against the sourceFive published polls, read off the 270toWin page rather than the poll screenshots in the corpus.
Neither half can establish cause. This page measures what was said, how much of it there was, and who said it. It is not a poll, it does not model turnout, and it does not predict the November result.
How to read this
Source. Quid. Each person is defined once, centrally, by a stored definition that uses
primary: sentiment targeting, so the sentiment is scored toward that named figure rather
than toward the post as a whole. Every figure on this page reads that same definition.
Window. Oct 5 - Oct 11, 2026, seven complete day buckets. Quid closes its day at 23:00 UTC and
ignores the timezone parameter, so each bucket covers roughly 23 hours of the labeled calendar day.
Net sentiment is (positive − negative) / (positive + negative) × 100, computed on
labeled posts only. Neutral posts are excluded from the meter but counted in the volume figures.
Sentiment coverage. Sentiment labels cover 33 to 41% of Sununu's posts and 23 to 20% of Pappas's.
This is the thinnest page on the site. Sununu inside New Hampshire rests on 11 stored documents and Pappas on 12. Both clear the floor of 10, but only just: a handful of posts either way would move these figures materially. The national slices are sounder at 366 and 233 documents.
Classifier attribution is imperfect. In a two-candidate race most posts name both people, and
the classifier sometimes assigns a post's sentiment to the wrong subject, and several posts attacking one
candidate are labeled positive for them. Every soundbite shown here was read and placed against the narrative
it actually supports, but the donut and meter totals are the classifier's unedited output.
Twitter/X counts are projected ×10 from a 10% sample, so volume figures exceed the number of
individually stored documents. Counts and samples are never mixed inside one ratio.
Sensitivity test. 21% of Sununu's posts and 25% of Pappas's name both candidates, where the classifier can credit sentiment to the wrong one. Re-running every figure on posts that name one
candidate only matters more here than anywhere, and in Sununu's case it erases the result: his New Hampshire figure moves from -45.5 to exactly 0.0 once posts naming Pappas are removed. On a base this small that is a few posts changing hands. Pappas moves from -50.0 to -33.3. Treat the in-state column as the weakest evidence on this page.
Volume is amplification, not voices. Only 16% of posts are original; the rest are reposts and replies. Unique-author counts
are shown on every panel and are the better measure of how many people are actually talking.
Link integrity. Every source link on this page was checked for liveness at publication.
Exploratory. Figures may not match Quid's own dashboards exactly. Sentiment is a
measure of how people are talking, not a poll, and nothing here projects a November result.
